Today, both the Arizona Republic and the East Valley Tribune released the results of their respective polls regarding Mesa's upcoming Tax Election.  While the numbers differ, both show the Sales Tax passing, and the Property Tax defeated.

The Arizona Republic numbers show the Sales Tax passing by 41% YES to 36% No (a 5% margin).  However, with a relatively large 17% Undecided vote, and 6% of those polled not likely to vote, combined with a 4.9% Margin of Error, that victory is in no way assured.

The East Valley Tribune numbers are much more optimistic with the measure easily passing by nearly a 2-to-1 margin:  59% YES, 30% No, 11% Undecided.

The Republic survey further shows the Property Tax likely defeated by a somewhat comfortable 15% margin:  45% NO, 30% Yes, 18% Undecided, and 7% not voting.  The 18% undecided vote is not likely to overcome that gap.

The Tribune numbers, are similar: 46% NO, 34% Yes, 20% Undecided.
That's a 12% spread, and while difficult, is within the range of the Undecided vote, and the Margin of Error.

The results for both questions will likely be determined by voter turnout and undecided voters.

The Republic polled 404 potential voters with a Margin of Error of ±4.9%.  The Tribune polled 401 voters with a Margin of Error of ±5%.  The Tribune uses a slightly different methodology and does not record voters who don't plan on voting.  Both telephone surveys were conducted in late April.